Europe's Extinction

Europe's Extinction

2007-01-06 08:08 / Aleś Čajčyc

"Blessed are the meek, for they shall inherit the earth." (Mt. 5:5 KJV)

The Western civilisation and democratic culture seem to be going to their fall, and this fall might happen rather sooner than later. And it will not be an economic crashdown, it will not be some nuclear terrorist attack and will not be a third (fourth?) World War. It will be the West's silent physical extinction.

We are all used to the information about Europe's catastrophe-approaching demography. By 2025 40% of UK's population will be over 50 years old. Italy's population will fall by 2050 by 22%. The population of Germany is going to shrink from today's 83 Mio to approximately 70 Mio. Among them 10 Millions will be people aged more than 80, the average age of the Germans will by that time be 50 years. The annual difference between deaths and births will be about 600 thousands deaths over births, compared to already 150 thousands nowadays.

It is mostly spoken about the economic and financial consequences of the approaching demographic crisis. A bigger percentage of pensioners will have to be supplied by a smaller part of generative working power. Still, the modern economy seems to have found a possible solution for this problem as the pensions are more and more supplied by money invested by future pensioners into retirement insurance and private pension funds. Working people in the West start providing for their future pensions by own investments and corporate pension schemes, although it is very questionable whether all working people will be able to use this scheme. An other option is to keep on rising the retirement age.

One can imagine the further development of this process with Europe finally transforming into a society of renters. Less and less human resources are needed for the economy, as the industry is more and more outlaid to countries with cheaper workforce, lower ecological standards et cetera. The capital resides in London, Frankfurt, New York and the production is in India, China. Globalisation melts the whole world into one society, where new social classes will at the first stage be constructed on the base of nations, with the West, especially Europe, becoming "capitalist" and the rest of the world becoming "proletarian". The Western society will herewith not be interested in renewing the population: just remember the prognosis of Russia's income per capita growing drastically within the next decades because of a slight growth of income, but a drastic decrease in population.

Without speaking of the danger of a globo-social revolution, the obvious trend is that one day in several centuries Europeans will simply die out.

Certain political powers put a taboo on discussions of political and cultural aspects of Europe's extinction. But the problem is still there and unfortunately can not be ignored: the extinction of Western political culture will obviously threaten the global democratic progress. Even immigrants in European countries often face problems in accepting their new home countries' liberal values, forming isolated ethnic and religious groups that live and promote totalitarian ideology. The global progress of liberty and democratic transformations will not be able to continue without having a base of adherents who have grown up in democracy and have the values of liberty as a cornerstone, as an essence of their mentality and world-view. The further Europe's depopulation progresses, the fewer of these people-born-in-freedom the world has.

There is also a more individualistic issue in the problem. Solving Europe's demographic problem is a question of simply whether we want to survive as a culture and as a civilisation, whether we do care about anything further than our personal animalistic interests, or we don't. The living conditions of a country may be good or bad or even very bad, the living standards may be high or low or even very low. But as soon as there are physically people there in the country, there will be a future for the nation, there will always be a chance for the situation to improve. That is exactly the strategic advantage of the "developing" African and Asian countries over the "developed" Europe. Is Europe's time up? Or are we still there? Do we care about existence of the European cultural identity in the future? These are the existential questions that must be set and must be answered above all.

Different solutions to the demographic problems are proposed by the political elites. The mainstream left wing seems to prefer leaving the problem as it is. It simply tries to handle external symptoms of the problem by introducing new pension schemes burdening the private business and trying to compensate decrease of population merely by means of migration. the conservative right wing sees the problem more deeply, but their proposed measures are even less adequate. The conservatives' vision means regress and abandonment of liberal and democratic freedoms, going back to the Kinder-Küche-Kirche-formula of woman's role in society, putting restrictions on migration.

Here we see an acute need for a "third way" in solving the problem. Finding the solution will substantially be put on our generation's shoulders, as those around-50-years olds of 2025 are us, today's twens. It is going to be our generation who will bury the European civilisation and the global democracy by simply not giving new bearers to them - or will find out how to overcome this challenge. Everything is up to us.

Third Way