Showing posts with label russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label russia. Show all posts

December 15, 2009

The Russian Way of Being Free

My article for Novaja Europa about freedom and Russian mentality.




"The severity of Russian laws is balanced by their non-obligatory execution".

Mikhail Saltykov-Shchedrin


Is Russia doomed to be authoritarian? In order to answer this question, we must try to analyze both the Russian mentality and the political history of the country.


Do not mix politics and "mentality"

A common place is the assertion that authoritarianism is a necessary part of Russian mentality, unlike that of other European nations. Thus, the current dire situation regarding democracy and human rights in Belarus is often attributed to the fact that the Belarusian lands have been occupied by Russia for over two hundred years. During this time, it is assumed, oriental authoritarian mentality and manners have been planted in what is now Belarus.

Another common point is the assertion that the seemingly authoritarian mindset has not prevented Japan and Germany from becoming prosperous democracies after the Second World War. Both countries, though not without an external stimulus, have built their "economic miracles" based on economic liberalism.

Thus, it is necessary to distinguish between the possibility of building a social system based on liberal principles and, on the other hand, specifics of business and labour culture (within a liberal economy), which are influenced by traditions and mentality. This also applies to Russia, where traditions of authoritarianism should not be grounds for the idea that Russian people are somehow predisposed to slavery and dictatorship.


In what way are Russians freer than western Europeans?

Western Europeans are accustomed to an institutionalized freedom guaranteed by law and custom. Western liberal legal culture has a long history: from Magna Carta and the medieval German urban communes where "city air makes you free", to women's emancipation and the desire to overcome the effects of racial segregation in the U.S. (as evidenced by Obama's election for president).

Legal culture in Russia has gone through the tragic history of the Mongol yoke and has been forming differently, also influenced by the huge territorial extent of the country. At the core of this culture lays the balance of power between the rigid dictates of the center, on the one hand, and fragmented execution of orders on the regions, on the other side.

At the same time the Russian people have traditionally learned to see a greater importance of "objectivity" and of a justice higher than formal law. The law has traditionally been of poor quality, and therefore required a critical approach. Russians have been able to develop this critical approach to a much greater extent than western Europeans. Law in Russia is not a norm to be executed, but at best a "guideline" or, in some cases, simply an obstacle to be overcome. Western Europeans are not accustomed to such wit and intelligence in relation to execution of laws. A famous Russian proverb says "You can turn the law the way you want" - perhaps in this respect a Russian is more free than a Western person.


The Russian conflict: man versus bureaucrat

Russia has traditionally had an authoritarian and usually irrational government, which hindered realization of the people's potential. The history of Russia is the history of an eternal silent battle between reason and the law, between Man and the Bureaucrat. Because of the poor quality of modern Russian legislation, enormous intellectual and organizational resources used to withdraw assets to offshores and reinvest them back instead of developing the business.

As a result of that, the small island of Cyprus has formally become the second largest foreign investor in Russia. Besides, countries that may potentially be used as offshores are the source for more than half of "foreign investments" into Russia: the Netherlands take 18.6% of the total volume, Cyprus - 16,6%, Luxembourg - 15,1%, the Virgin Islands - 2 8%. Up to USD 300m were being annually spent on bribes and kickbacks in Russia before the crisis. The large scale of tax evasion and license tricks greatly distorts national economic statistics.

There are also "everyday" examples of violations of the imperfect Russian laws. For instance, the prohibition of advertising of strong alcohol is being overcome by advertising vodka brands as mineral water, chocolates or even books - and that openly on TV.

Authoritarianism is considered a distinctive feature of the Oriental mentality, dominating in countries like China or Japan. But that authoritarianism is a functioning one, where people irrevocably subdue to the leader and do not grumble or sabotage the production process like Soviet workers did. Since the Mongol yoke, which largely determined the characteristics of the statehood of Muscovy and its derivative Russia, the Russian mentality is a mentality of a Western man enslaved by an Oriental ruler.

Italian-strike-like protest against the government, silent and motivated rather at a subconscious level, is a feature of such mentality. There is a corrosion of public institutions, but also is the converse: Russian society is capable of self-regulation and self-government. Along with the failing state institutions informal institutions arise. These informal institutions are often even more effective and more fair than the government.


Modern Russia: no czars and no great guiding idea

In modern conditions, where there is no will of the hated lord to be sabotaged, a Russian mind may start treating the legitimate interests of fellow citizens as this "obstacle to overcome". And this can, under certain conditions, become quite dangerous. In some respects such behaviour is demonstrated by the rulers of modern Russia. For the first time in Russian history these people do not feel some transcendental and spiritual mission upon themselves (by will of God Emperor of the Third Rome, the Head of Russian Orthodox Church, Father Czar), nor a secular but still global and pathetic mission (a Global Socialist Revolution, or, conversely, the romantic liberation from communist dictatorship of the early 1990s).

The current Russian leadership has been formed behind the scenes from representatives of middle and lower grades of Soviet and post-Soviet nomenklatura. Now these people do not have a boss over their own head, but are accustomed to act on the same schemes as previously. In such circumstances corruption becomes part of the governing mechanism, the real decision-making is quite different from what is defined in the Constitution. The state itself, among its priorities, pursues primarily the interests business groups close to the Kremlin.

In the 1990s Russia started a transformation towards a market economy and pluralist democracy. However, such transition could turn into stagnation, which apparently happened in this case. In such situation the "adolescence problems" may cause complications and increase the risk of destruction of the Russian state as such. Fortunately, considering statements of President Medvedev, some fractions within the Russian government seem aware of the danger.

Many peolpe speak a unique and special path to democracy and freedom for Russia. Those who use such rhetoric, if they do not aim to justify the de-facto deconstruction of democratic institutions, should really search for ways to make liberal reforms and to redefine the role of the state in relevant Russian national traditions. These traditions, these traits of national character existed before, and are still valid now.

// Novaja Europa

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October 30, 2009

Nord-Ost: Terror in Moscow

The Moscow theatre hostage crisis, also known as the 2002 Nord-Ost siege, was the seizure of a crowded Moscow theatre on October 23, 2002 by about 40-50 armed Chechen terrorists who claimed allegiance to the separatist movement in Chechnya. They took 850 hostages and demanded the withdrawal of Russian forces from Chechnya and an end to the Second Chechen War. The siege was officially led by Movsar Barayev (aged 25).

After a two-and-a-half day siege, Russian Spetsnaz forces pumped an unknown chemical agent into the building's ventilation system and raided it. Officially, 39 of the terrorists were killed by Russian forces, along with at least 129 and possibly many more of the hostages (including nine foreigners). All but a few of the hostages who died during the siege were killed by the toxic substance pumped into the theatre to subdue the militants.

// Wikipedia



A good and terrifying western documentary about a tragedy do truly Russian: after a successful police operation the - already freed! - people died simply because they were not given the right treatment.


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February 20, 2009

Confederalization is Russia's only chance to survive

A brilliant article in today's Gazeta.ru:

http://www.gazeta.ru/comments/2009/02/19_a_2945783.shtml

I fully agree with the author.

Russia is a country too large to be effectively managed in a centralized way. And this means that the country has to be decentralized, has to be truly federalized (what it isn't now) or even confederalized.

You can't manage any problems in a same way in the Islamic Northern Caucasus, the Finnish borderlands and the semi-inhabited far eastern Kamchatka that have completely different economical, geographical, cultural conditions. It's impossible to even have a single educational system on a territory that large. Therefore functions should be transferred from the Federal power to local administrations, the more the better.

People should have the chance to achieve real changes on local level and not just to migrate to Moscow or St. Pete for opportunities and career. They should have the freedom and the responsibility instead of relying on the Federal government. The Federal government has to encourage people to develop their home regions - and the only way to do so is to decentralize the country.

Otherwise we will see Russia falling in parts as soon as it faces a serious economic crisis where Moscow starts lacking resources to control the regions. And this process would be accompanied by terrible wars that would make a second Yugoslavia, if not a second Rwanda, out of the Northern Caucasus and the Volga region.

On the other hand, there is the problem that confederalization and decentralization of a country like Russia may end in its collapse. We're used to be forced to live together and every loosening of the brutal binding power creates the temptation for the local elite to break away completely. Especially this relates to regions that are able to live separately like Yakutia, Kaliningrad (former German Eastern Prussia), Tatarstan, Vladivostok.

This means that some other motivation should be created for the regions to be loyal to Russia. One should not be proud of being Slave of an Empire, but should enjoy being a free member of a Federation that gives opportunities and is an attractive example for the neighbouring states.
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January 22, 2009

Moscow yuppies and the economic crisis

It seems to me that our generation of young Russian twens will be psychologically hit the hardest by the economic crisis. Today's Moscow yuppies and recent university graduates - how can they be ready for a crisis?

We were to young to feel whole gravity of the 1990s in Russia - no matter how hard it was, we were still children then and had our parents to care for us. I remember how we got humanitarian aid handed out in school in 1991 or early 1992. It was several tins of Danish Tulip meat conserves and a pocket of dry milk for every pupil and it was really the first time since very long before that we drank milk (no matter how bad) and ate meat. And - strangely - I did not feel suffering at that time. To the contrary, after that for a long time (psychologically the feeling went away only a couple of years ago) I had some inner impression that having bananas or yogurts on our table is luxury and that one could perfectly live without these now seemingly simple food products. And we really could survive without them and as a child I wasn't stressed about that.

In the crisis of 1998 many of us were still teenagers with our parents caring for us. I can not say for that time because we left to live abroad exactly 5 months before the August crisis.

Anyway, today my generation is a generation who became truly adult and economically active in the prosperous 2000s with oil prices above USD 100 per barrel enriching whole Russia and our sweet home Moscow in first line. It's only tiny 8 years since 2000, but the ones who just really started living in these years could get the impression that these wealthy years would last forever. It's bad when people take "special" for "normal".

We're not used to live in a crisis, we're used (or started getting used) to have our vacations in Egypt or, better, Spain, to take loans and buy cars and apartments. Our generation is a generation of young glamourous Moscow investment bankers, fund market analysts and brand managers. But it's not only about the top young bankers and analysts - there are much more middle class young people who work as white-collars in small (or big) companies just doing their jobs from 9am to 6pm and renting a flat, and they are going to be hit much harder than top professionals.

Psychologically many of us do not really know what it is to live in a crisis, to get fired having a loan to pay back. Only few of us can imagine what it is to go and work as a construction worker or to trade vegetables on a bazaar (*lol* I hope it won't get that bad, but still).

Of course, people have survived in worse times than these. Our grandparents had survived a world war and our parents survived the hopeless totalitarian USSR. What is a stupid economic crisis compared to a war or to decades of an isolated totalitarian system that seemed to stay there for centuries? We'll survive the challenge anyway and will hopefully remember these times as interesting and adventurous.
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January 16, 2009

Russian ruble lost 41% of its value against US dollar in 6 months

Bloggers write that today it's 6 months since the Russian ruble exchange rate starting falling against the US dollar. In June 2007 one dollar was worth 23.12 rubles and now it's 32.57 rubles.

During the same time the oil price went down from above 145 $/bbk to 45 $/bbl.

As sad as it is for Russian economy. The miracle couldn't have last too long without serious diversification of the economy.
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December 28, 2008

Russian Finance Minister Kudrin: 2009 Worst Year Since World War 2

Happy new year 2009: Finance minister Kudrin promises us a deficit of the Russian state budget as huge as RUR 1.5 - 2 trillion (USD 51bn - 69bn).

"2009 will be the hardest year for Russian and global economy. It will be the worst year since the end of World War 2", Mr. Kudrin said.

// http://www.vz.ru/news/2008/12/27/242613.html


Inflation will rise but the government still does not plan cuts in financing the construction of Sochi 2014 Olympic infrastructure.
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December 22, 2008

Russians protest against the government rising automobile import duties

Russian car-owners protest against the government's plan to seriously rise import duties for automobiles starting 1 January 2009. Mass protests started in the Far Eastern regions where the majority drives Japanese cars.

People say the rising of import duties was lobbied by Russian car makers (AvtoVAZ and GAZ and probably foreign players who have production facilities in Russia: Chrysler, Ford, Renault, Nissan, Peugeot-Citroen, GM, Toyota, Volkswagen).



I just found an other reason not to buy myself a car in the coming spring :,)


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December 12, 2008

Kremlin-backed liberal party to attempt spoiling of the radical opposition's rally?

As usual, Kremlin-created kinda-liberal kinda-opposition parties turn out to act as spoilers for the radical democratic opposition.

This time, the newly created pro-Kremlin liberal party "Pravoe Delo" organizes a demonstration on Moscow's Pushkinskaya square on the same day and almost at the same time when the radical opposition marches from Triumfalnaya sq.



It just couldn't have been more predictable. It's so sad to see a bright and talented man like Euroset founder Evgeny Chichvarkin involved in this thing. This is my first "minus one" sympathy point for Pravoe Delo.

No chance for them to win sympathy of Russian liberals if they keep on acting as a spoiler party for the democratic opposition, no matter how good or bad the latter is.
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December 9, 2008

Unemployment in Chechnya over 65%

An impressive number: according to the Russian governmental statistics service, 65.3% of the population of the sadly known republic of Chechnya is unemployed (Source).

I wonder what all those people are just doing out there? Probably, a large part of the employed is simply working for the local government or in local military units (police, president Kadyrov's private guard etc). The unemployed must mostly be living from shadow economy or own-grown food.

Since the end of the Chechen war, the republic keeps living on subsidies from the Federal government that keep the former rebels from starting a new war again. As oil price has already shrunk below all pessimistic forecasts, and so may the state budget of Russia, hot times may come back to North Caucasus.
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November 30, 2008

The Soviet Story (Padomju stāsts, 2008)

The Soviet Story (Padomju stāsts), a 2008 Latvian documentary about Communist crimes (in English and Russian with Latvian subtitles). Includes interviews with Russian and European historians, a Finnish EU Parliament Member, a former member of KPSU Central Committee, with the Soviet dissident Vladimir Bukovsky. Very worth seeing.


Part 1: http://irc.lv/video?id=YrHosaqsKcUW

Part 2: http://irc.lv/video?id=q8Fyk1CH4vUw


The very good thing about this movie is that it underlines that roots of Soviet terror lay in Marxist ideology itself. Stalinist USSR was not a misinterpretation of Marx' Socialism - it WAS Socialism just as Socialism was supposed be.

Hitler was a National Socialist and the Soviets claimed to be "International" Socialists. There's no difference as all of them were fans of social engineering and constructed totalitarian states that should define and control all aspects of a person's life. Hitler killed people according to their ethnicity, Stalin killed people according to their social status. I'd call that difference a matter of taste.

There must be a Nuremberg Trial for Communist crimes. Not really to forbid something - but for people to get the right attitude to the USSR and to left-wing ideology. Although it's "uncool" today to be a fan of Hitler and "not very cool" to be a fan of Stalin, it is still completely acceptable to be Marxist or Maoist and even "cool" to be a fan of Che Guevara. While there's not really a big difference between them all.
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November 11, 2008

Russian rouble to fall soon?

Seems like devaluation of the Russian rouble is on its way:

1. «Я не исключаю повышения гибкости валютного курса рубля <...> с некоторой тенденцией к ослаблению рубля в отношении иностранных валют», — предупредил Игнатьев.

"I do not exclude an increase of the flexibility of rouble exchange rate <...> with a tendency towards weakening of the rouble against other currencies" - Sergey Ignatiev, head of Russian Central Bank

2. На наш взгляд, резкая девальвация национальной валюты, с макроэкономической точки зрения, более предпочтительна, чем постепенное ослабление, так как в последнем случае значительные ресурсы страны в течение длительного периода времени отвлекаются от реального сектора и начинают использоваться в валютных спекуляциях. Мировой опыт подобной политики, в том числе и в России 90-х, показывает, что резкого падения курса национальной валюты все равно не избежать"

"In our opinion, a radical devaluation of the national currency is <...> more preferable than a gradual one<...>. Global experience <...> shows us that a drastic fall of the national currency exchange rate can't be avoided anyway" - Raiffeisenbank analysts
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May 30, 2007

Russia: Authoritarianism Means Ineffective Economy

Right as I was writing the reply on Karolus' comment here about that foreign investors are not afraid of political risks involved with Russia, the Russian fund market started its fall. I just wonder at what stage to sell my investment fund shares.



MICEX Index last week

Yeah, and somebody thought here that democracy and economy do not relate to each other and that you can make business without taking care of politics as if it was something from a different planet. Indifference towards politics is common among my fellow yuppies and generally among Russians - they just go and vote for Putin without actually knowing a bit about what this man is.

For the Russian society as a whole the absence of democracy means the following:

- No transparency of state governance caused by lack of freedom of speech, especially in the regions outside Moscow and St. Petersburg. The media are state-controlled and therefore dependent on people in the administration and have no possibility of objective coverage of their faults

- No or blocked legal ways of influencing and adjusting the state policy: no democratic elections means no democratic parliament. Currently the only opposition party in the Duma are Communists. The governors’ elections were cancelled after the Beslan tragedy as a means to “fight terrorism” (yes, it was really said so). Instead, governors are directly appointed by the president and have therefore no accountability before the region’s population

- No guaranty of property rights, see YUKOS affair, the current raid on Russneft. In the regions the whole is, again, much harsher than in Moscow or St. Pete. Once a local authority sees an attractive business, it does not take too long for him to make the owner sell it for a low price after a couple of fiscal, medical, fire inspections coming across and after a “warm and confident” talk in the bureaucrat’s office

- Absence of independent courts and therefore no chance for victims of state despotism to bring the authorities or entities related to them to trial and, especially, to win. Judges are bought and sold.

- Monopoly rather than Oligopoly, both in politics and economy. Instead of Yeltsin era “oligarch clans” we now have the “different towers of one Kremlin”, several groups inside the ruling junta (e.g. “siloviki”, remainders of the Yeltsin “family” etc). Gazprom is becoming an anti-Utopian-style empire corporation with its own bank, media, football club, airlines and soon even armed forces. Rosneft is going the same way.

- No or blocked legal ways of publicly discussing the state policy except for the internet. Without publicity and exposure to criticism the state is limited in sources of creative ideas

- Corruption has nowadays a much greater scale than at worst Yeltsin's times


For businesses it means:

- Extra expenses on corruption: a sad but true fact is that budgets of most investment projects have bribe and kickback expenses a special article

- Extra bureaucratic burden: difficulties in registering a business, taxation – it all goes hand in hand with state authoritarianism

- General decline in [business] ethics in the society, therefore development of an unhealthy business culture and business climate.


So for all that we see a wave of non-resident investors leaving the Russian fund market last week.

I sometimes have the feeling that we are in danger to see the BRIC missing the "R" in a mid-term perspective. For this to be prevented, Russia must get back to the democratic path as soon as possible - at least to the limited democracy of Yeltsin times. A sort of a chance is coming up in 2008 where we'll have presidential elections. The elections will of course be anything but fair and democratic, but we have a chance that the new czar will be more liberal and democracy-oriented (Russia's democratic and modernization tendencies always depend on who's head of state). It seems that Putin's appointing of Dmitry Medvedev (current deputy Prime Minister) as The Kremlin Candidate would give us better chances than the of militarist former KGB-spy Sergei Ivanov, an other vice PM and #2 prospective Putin's pick.
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May 24, 2007

Following a scandal

A strange feeling to find an account of one of the money laundering SPEs mentioned in a recent money laundering scandal at the bank currently audited. (see (1) and (2), both in Russian)

Russia is a country of thieves run by thieves. Everywhere you step in business, you can always expect something semi-illegal, and the further the more. Anywhere the state has a role - everywhere, absolutely everywhere there is corruption. Hardly a single sign of things like business ethics or simple human moral. And there is also a plenty of people in the West who take benefits from the Russian intransparent undemocratic regime and money laundering by the KGB&oligarchia-driven Russian semi-criminal economy, just like the former German Bundeskanzler Schröder.

Even if the article by Natalia Morar or the Frenkel Letters, about the Cyclopean schemes of milliards of USD flushing to unknown accounts of unknown people, are not 100% true, they do perfectly reflect Russian reality. In the wild 1990ies the criminals wore vulgar pink jackets, golden chains and sports pants, now they wear Brioni, drive Bentleys, have a "Yedinaya Rossia" party member's card and a "honorable veteran of the KGB" certificate in their pocket together with a second passport of some Maldive islands.

Every bank is surely involved in some money laundering, or "obnalichka" (something like the opposite of money laundering, i.e. hiding illegal usage of legally earned money) or at least tax avoidance schemes via bloody Cyprus. And while auditing it is even senseless to look for fraud, because 1) it is obviously there and 2) if you find something, reporting to authorities will not bring anything because some people in the authorities are most likely to have a share in the scheme themselves.

It's rational for people to violate over-strict and unlogical, or even harmful, laws that are not strictly defended by the corrupt state. And the more the laws get violated, the more strict and unlogical they become. We end up in a vicious circle that forms a culture of principal disrespect to laws and rules and value of evasion of legislation. That's the situation in Russia.
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May 23, 2007

Russian banks are fit for IPO

My article for The Deloitte Times on IPOs of Russian Banks. Yeah, IPO is a trendy topic they're really fit or it! ) It's good that their going public will at least nominally reduce the state's role in the banking system. Though, this fact is rather like a water drop in a desert...


Russian banks are fit for IPO

Russian banks must raise equity through IPO to secure their own finances. Alexander Chaichits Čajčyc argues they are fit for the challenge.

Russian capital markets are set to take a new step in their evolution this year with the flotation of the first major banks and other financial institutions. Two large Russian banks, Sberbank and VTB, are conducting IPOs this spring.

Sberbank is the largest national bank in Russia and one of the few with shares already traded on the stock market. A successor of the Soviet system of savings banks, it has over 20,000 branches and sub-branches, and the value of its assets is six times higher than that of its nearest rivals. The bank is also fourth among Russian companies in market capitalization. The bank’s share placement in March, known as the “people’s IPO” from the state’s efforts to distribute shares among the public, raised RUR 230.2bn (USD 8.8bn) by selling 2.587mn shares. Funds raised will finance the development of the bank for the next three years.

VTB (former Vneshtorgbank) has the second largest net assets among banks in Russia. Amongst debt issued by Russian banks, VTB’s bonds and Eurobonds have the highest credit ratings with Moody’s and Fitch. VTB’s IPO is the next step in a large-scale strategy to expand into the Western European market of investment services.

The current major shareholder of Sberbank and VTB is the Russian government, with a 99.9 percent share in VTB. The bank’s IPO will decrease the Government’s stake by to 75 percent plus one share. The state’s majority ownership of Sberbank fell from 63.7 percent to 60 percent in its March offering.

The media and business communities are keeping a keen eye on Sberbank and VTB to see who will secure a more successful IPO. Analysts predict that the stateowned banks’ IPOs are just the beginning of a future IPO boom for Russian banking.

The advantages of a public offering for banks are generally the same as for non-financial institutions. As the bank grows, it becomes unfeasible to sustain the debt/equity ratio required by the Central Bank by simply regulating loans raised. To have its two feet firmly on the ground, the bank needs to increase its equity. This may be done in three ways: by raising funds from existing shareholders, by selling a stake to a strategic investor, or by issuing equity or debt on public markets.

All three capital raising initiatives have their pitfalls. Existing shareholders are not always ready to absorb the complete issue, especially when it is a large amount. The sale of a large stake to a strategic investor requires care and precision in the search for an investor, which will in turn result in the emergence of a new power balance among shareholders, and changes to the management structure. Again, a strategic investor’s resources may not be large enough to cover the needs of a fast-growing bank.

The most reliable tool in this respect is an initial public offering. First, the market is more able to cope with a large issue than a strategic investor. Second, capital dilution through an IPO does not necessarily result in the emergence of a new major shareholder which challenges the existing power balance.

Floating a Russian bank on a stock exchange and complying with tough issuer requirements on reporting and transparency can demonstrate its business management standards. Publicly traded shares are liquid and quoted in real time, making them sensitive to the continuing performance of the bank. All this makes a positive impact on the bank’s reputation, which should potentially allow it to raise additional capital at a lower price.

2005-2006 saw the IPOs of three Chinese and three Japanese banks, as well as others in Austria, France, Greece, and the Netherlands. In 2006, two new world records were set for IPO capital raised. Both the world’s largest IPOs were from state-owned banks.

On 1 June, the Bank of China placed its stock on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising USD 9.7bn. In the six months following this, the record IPO volume was beaten again, also by a Chinese bank. In October, the Hong Kong and Singapore Stock Exchanges started trading shares in the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which managed to raise almost USD 22bn.

Sberbank is one of just a few Russian banks currently traded on the stock market. Last year, AKB Rosbank prepared for an IPO, but the whole package was sold to a strategic investor at the last minute. Many large and mid-sized banks intend to go public, encouraged by The Central Bank of Russia. All this is evidence of a potentially massive inflow of banks’ shares to the stock market: Russian banks are considered fit for IPO. Much of the preceding IPOs’ success will depend on the pioneers, Sberbank and VTB, which explains the particular interest in their placements. Hardly anyone doubts that the first fry will be far from a flop.

Alexander Čajčyc, Deloitte
Rosbank, Russian Banks and Brokers Reports

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May 14, 2007

Eurovision'2007

Eurovision Song Contest

Every year everybody says that Eurovision is crap and they do not want to see it. But still, for at least several days it becomes the most discussed topic in Russian media and blogs.

The winning song from Serbia is though not bad, but nothing special at all at the same time. Just an other whiny ballad in Serbian - I even liked the Bosnian song that took 3rd place on ESC'2006 more.

Ukraine's trashy Verka Serdyuchka - that's who was supposed to win! :)

The man (hm!) is famous in post-Soviet countries for his unfunny humorist shows and sketches, and only a couple of years ago he started to sing songs that were of bad taste too but still something good for moving one's body after some vodka on a village disco.

An important topic discussed in Russia is now whether it says "Lasha Tumbai" or "Russia, goodbye!" in Serdyuchka's song. Some Russian bloggers already proposed to boycott him just as they hysterically called for a boycott on Estonian goods a week ago because of Estonian government replacing a Soviet monument in Tallinn. Ridiculous and lächerlich! As most neighbors with a complicated history of relations do, many Russians and Ukrainians don't like each other. As I have noticed, Russians express this in rudeness and aggression; and Ukrainians laugh Russians off and put them in situations where they look stupid. This is a typical case.

Russia's Serebro and Belarus' Dźmitry Kałdun aka Koldun were nothing special at all. Just an other two Eurovision songs: not bad, but not brilliant neither. Much more I liked the songs presented by Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland (I can't believe they got the last place!).

As to me, the very best song of this year's contest was Sopho Khalvashi of Georgia with "Visionary Dream". The promo video is as marvelous as the song itself!



That girl just broke my heart! The song got few votes - but that's because it's just too good for Eurovision, if you ask me.
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March 23, 2007

Auf Kosten von Respekt zu sich selber

In Russland lebt man nicht – man überlebt, oft auf Kosten von Respekt zu sich selber. Das Land ist korrupt von A bis Z, von den größten Kremlbonzen bis zu dem kleinsten lausigsten Militärkommisariatbeamten. Es ist unfassbar.

Dabei ist dieses System nicht reformierbar – schlicht weil niemand an einer Reformierung interessiert ist. Keiner von denen hier ist. Alle leben damit von Geburt, alle werden früher oder später zu Opfern der Korruption, alle Eltern müssen eines Tages der Kinderärztin oder Kindergartennanny schöne Bonbons schenken, damit sie ihre Arbeit anständig macht; für alle Autofahrer ist es ein Teil des Lebens, dem Straßenpolizisten 50 oder 100 Rubeln zu spenden, damit er ihnen keine Strafquittung ausschreibt. So gehörts halt.

Imbezile russische Gesetze sind nur dazu da, um denjenigen zu bestrafen, wer ihnen zu folgen versucht – genau wie in Ayn Rands “Atlas Shrugged”. Zwei Jahre russische Armee sind eine Folter wie zwei Jahre russisches Gefängnis, mit Selbstmordraten im Durchschnitt 1-2 Soldaten pro Tag. Da besticht man schon lieber den fetten Schleimer beim Militäramt, statt in diese Hölle zu geraten. Und so ists überall.

Die Menschen wollen überleben, deshalb kein Ausweg außer Korruption. Und da Korruption etwas ganz unschuldiges und normales wird, werden die Leute immer selbst zu Korrumpanten sobald sie eine Möglichkeit dazu kriegen.
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December 23, 2006

Nazi terrorism in Moscow

http://maskodagama.livejournal.com/440179.html

An other attack against an antifascist activist in Moscow. The youngster was coming home with his mother. On their flat's door they saw a Hakenkreuz and a papersheet saying "Juden Khachi (derogatory for "Caucasians") live here". The boy was about to tear the paper away as he saw a bomb connected to it. They immediately called the police. As the policemen tried to neutralise the bomb, it exploded and heavily injured them.

The Livejournal post above has some comments supporting the "Russian Warriors Fighting Bastardic Antifa" that are also more than illustrative.

And this is not the first such case. Skinhead attacks against people from Caucasus countries, the Central Asia, Africa or even (and more often) from the Russian Northern Caucasus are more than usual news here. The democratic opposition says that this increased activity is supported by the Kremlin to maintain a feeling of insecurity among the people. Besides that, the nazis should therefore become the most probable alternative to "good guys" from the pro-Kremlin parties and movements, so that people would face the choice between neo-Putin and nazis at the coming parliamental and presidental elections.

Be it so or not - we really seem to live in a Russian Weimar Republic that has a realistic chance to become a Russian Third Reich.
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December 14, 2006

Former East German athletes get compensation for doping

Germany's Olympic Committee has agreed to compensate former athletes who were victims of systematic doping in East Germany under the communist rule.

The committee (DOSB) said 167 sportsmen and women would each receive a one-off payment of 9,250 euros (£6,200).

The deal ends a five-year legal dispute between the athletes, many of whom were made ill by the drugs, and the DOSB.

The athletes argued that the DOSB of unified Germany inherited the liability of East Germany's sports body.

'Moral responsibility'

They said they had been given drugs without their knowledge from an early age.

Many said they had suffered psychological problems as a result. Some female athletes said they had become infertile.

DOSB head Michael Vespers said his committee had a "moral responsibility" to compensate the victims of state-sponsored doping regimes.

"This is a day of celebration. We can now look to the future and stop looking back over years of arguments," Mr Vespers said.

The DOSB will pay a third of the compensation package - the remainder will be given by the federal government.

The former athletes have agreed not to seek any other legal action.

It is the second time that damages have been paid to former East German athletes - 194 received compensation 10,400 euros (£6,900) each.

Some 10,000 athletes are thought to have been given performance-enhancing drugs to help East Germany compete with the major sporting powers like the US and the former USSR.

BBC


I wonder how far this drug story can be applied to training of Soviet sportspeople.

Ah, who cares - whether or not, they will never get a single penny from the "Motherland", even if they'd kill themselves for its glory. That's the way it is in Russia
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December 8, 2006

Washington Post about the Litvinenko case

That Murder in London

By Charles Krauthammer
Friday, December 8, 2006; Page A39

The poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko, renegade Russian spy and fierce critic of Vladimir Putin's government, is everywhere being called a mystery. There is dark speculation about unnamed "rogue elements" either in the Russian secret services or among ultranationalists acting independently of the government. There are whispers about the indeterminacy of things in the shadowy netherworld of Russian exile politics, crime and espionage.

Well, you can believe in indeterminacy. Or you can believe the testimony delivered on the only reliable lie detector ever invented -- the deathbed -- by the victim himself. Litvinenko directly accused Putin of killing him.

Litvinenko knew more about his circumstances than anyone else. And on their deathbeds, people don't lie. As Machiavelli said (some attribute this to Voltaire), after thrice refusing the entreaties of a priest to repent his sins and renounce Satan, "At a time like this, Father, one tries not to make new enemies."

In science, there is a principle called Occam's razor. When presented with competing theories for explaining a natural phenomenon, one adopts the least elaborate. Nature prefers simplicity. Scientists do not indulge in grassy-knoll theories. You don't need a convoluted device to explain Litvinenko's demise.

Do you think Anna Politkovskaya, the journalist who was investigating the war in Chechnya, was shot dead in her elevator by rogue elements? What about Viktor Yushchenko, the presidential candidate in Ukraine and eventual winner, poisoned with dioxin during the campaign, leaving him alive but disfigured? Ultranationalist Russians?

Opponents of Putin have been falling like flies. Some jailed, some exiled, some killed. True, Litvinenko's murder will never be traced directly to Putin, no matter how dogged the British police investigation. State-sponsored assassinations are almost never traceable to the source. Too many cutouts. Too many layers of protection between the don and the hit man.

Moreover, Russia has a long and distinguished history of state-sponsored assassination, of which the ice-pick murder of Leon Trotsky was but the most notorious. Does anyone believe that Pope John Paul II, then shaking the foundations of the Soviet empire, was shot by a crazed Turk acting on behalf of only Bulgaria?

If we were not mourning a brave man who has just died a horrible death, one would almost have to admire the Russians, not just for audacity but for technique in Litvinenko's polonium-210 murder. Assassination by poisoning evokes the great classical era of raison d'etat rub-outs by the Borgias and the Medicis. But the futurist twist of (to paraphrase Peter D. Zimmerman in the Wall Street Journal) the first reported radiological assassination in history adds an element of the baroque of which a world-class thug outfit such as the KGB (now given new initials) should be proud.

Some say that the Litvinenko murder was so obvious, so bold, so messy -- five airplanes contaminated, 30,000 people alerted, dozens of places in London radioactive -- that it could not possibly have been the KGB.

But that's the beauty of it. Do it obvious, do it brazen, and count on those too-clever-by-half Westerners to find that exonerating. As the president of the Central Anarchist Council (in G.K. Chesterton's "The Man Who Was Thursday") advised: "You want a safe disguise, do you? . . . A dress in which no one would ever look for a bomb? Why, then, dress up as an anarchist, you fool!"

The other reason for making it obvious and brazen is to send a message. This is a warning to all the future Litvinenkos of what awaits them if they continue to go after the Russian government. They'll get you even in London, where there is the rule of law. And they'll get you even if it makes negative headlines for a month.

Some people say that the KGB would not have gone to such great lengths to get so small a fry as Litvinenko. Well, he might have been a small fry, but his investigations were not. He was looking into the Kremlin roots of Politkovskaya's shooting. And Litvinenko claimed that the Russian government itself blew up apartment buildings in Moscow and elsewhere in 1999, killing hundreds of innocent civilians, in order to blame it on the Chechens and provoke the second Chechen war. Pretty damning stuff.

But even Litvinenko's personal smallness serves the KGB's purposes precisely. If they go to such lengths and such messiness and such risk to kill someone as small as Litvinenko, then no critic of the Putin dictatorship is safe. It is the ultimate in deterrence.

The prosecution rests. We await definitive confirmation in Putin's memoirs. Working title: "If I Did It."

Washington Post



What a gottverdammt pretty country I was born to
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15 years no Sovok



Today it's the 15th anniversary of the dissolution of the USSR. Something worth a party! ;)
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