After quitting smoking, having one or two drinks a day is the best single thing you can do for your cardiovascular health. It's better than losing weight, better than getting more exercise, and better than lowering your cholesterol.
[...]
The benefits to alcohol consumption are absolutely clear. Drinking five to six drinks a week reduces the risk of sudden cardiac death by 79 percent. It cuts heart attack risk, both in men who exercise and eat right and in men with hypertension. It also protects against type-2 diabetes and gallstones. In middle-aged women, moderate consumption of alcohol is associated with a 17% reduction in death from all causes.
// Wisebread.com
I'll quit smoking one day, I promise! )
Read more...
August 12, 2007
July 5, 2007
Atlas Shrugged
My essay on Ayn Rand's "Atlas Shrugged", kindly translated from Belarusian by the guys from TOL Blog Belarus***
written by czalex
translated by meramo
The world of Ayn Rand might seem exaggerated, but if you take a minute and look around, read the news, you can see this world: a world we live in. Characters of corrupt politicians, of so called "public opinion leaders", for whom "there's no black and white" but only gray unscrupulousness – all these things are described in the book. Positive characters – strong, conscientious men and women. They, may lack some "human" features, some liveliness or human weakness. But it's so because Rand first of all a great essayist, and only then – a writer.
"Atlas Shrugged" is a famous novel by the American philosopher Ayn Rand. It's among the first books in the genre of a business-novel, and is the first fiction book in the library of 3dWay. The novel was published in 1957 and was later recognized as one of the best and most important literature works of the 20th century. The story takes place in an unclear period in the future in the United States. Almost all countries of the world have become socialistic "people's republics". The USA is one of the last democratic and market-oriented countries, but is following other countries' path very quickly. The economy is in recession and survives only because few profitable enterprises led by talented and skilled businessmen. One of these companies is Taggart Transcontinental, a railway company . Its chief is Dagny Taggart, the book's main hero, has to fight for her business under the press of corrupt bureaucracy, which introduces more and more restrictions of the business initiative and as by that only worsens the situation.
Ayn Rand describes an absurd world and society where a person's disadvantage is the cause for rewards, where the initiative, intellect and ability for a creative work are punished by the obligation to take care of losers. This world is ruled by people who can talk about spirituality and refusal of the material while living in dirty bungalows instead of prosperous cities burned as a result of their Utopian "human-loving" projects. The rich ones have to take care of the poor, the strong ones – of the weak , the successful ones – of losers, the talented ones – of the untalented and the intelligent ones – of fools. Sweet speeches about public interests hide the real faces of amoral and corrupt people. Public life in these cruel conditions becomes entailed by oppression and violence, which lead the country to a complete disaster.
But there are people who resist the system, the "atlases" who hold this world on their shoulders – the business elite. The state uses them as it wants. But as they give wealth, technologies, working places – they are more and more blamed for selfishness and "oppression of the working people". As this happens, they one by one disappear, leaving the society to the hands of people, who curse them. When the working people have rights to strike, so the businessmen take this right for them too – and very soon it becomes obvious, what is the key element in economy. Labor can do nothing without intelligence and business talent; it is nothing but an instrument in the hands of businessmen.
The world of Ayn Rand might seem exaggerated, but if you take a minute and look around, read the news, you can see this world: a world we live in. Characters of corrupt politicians, of so called "public opinion leaders" and "philosophers" for whom "there's no black and white" but only a gray absence of any principles – all these things are described in the book. Positive characters are strong, conscientious men and women. They may lack some "human" features, some liveliness or human weaknesses. But it may be so because of Ayn Rand's being first of all an outstanding essayist, and only then a writer.
The economy of a country has to be maximally efficient, therefore maximally rational, therefore maximally liberal. The caring about other people can not be put above giving the chance to care about themselves to those who are able to.
The same works in politics and social life. When we hear that some monumental goals have to be put above a person's private interests, the road back to Stone Age begins. And it doesn't matter whether these goals are used to camouflage some hidden agenda or are a product of naivety. Fascism, theocracy, socialism – all regimes, which legitimize themselves in any ways but a neutral and cold-blooded democratic procedure, or that start talking of Utopian ideas – these regimes are unfair, irrational, and therefore inefficient, and therefore wrong.
The system of values, where people doing their best to achieve their own purposes and wealth is the best basis for love and friendship, because the relations between people in this way grounds not on charity, but on the mutual respect and utility.
All these things are described in the novel. Rationality is the only criteria for determining the social order. Any excesses are excessive and harmful. A very talented description of the way a society not following this principle develops is the main thing that makes "Atlas Shrugged" a book to be read by every educated person.
Source
Read more...
June 28, 2007
Blogging about blogging
Thanks to Andrew Kable I started discovering the English speaking business blogosphere - and I'm very happy to do that!
For example, Penelope Trunk's blog has a very interesting series of articles on blogging.
I have my Belarusian-Russian blog since 2003. First it was just a diary, then a means to communicate with friends who also have a blog at Livejournal and to find new friends among Belarusian speakers. Livejournal is very popular in post-Soviet countries exactly because it offers broad opportunities to communicate and not just to blog. Practically, it developed into a social network above a blogging service.
Finally, it more and more became a blog on current political issues concerning Belarus, leaving less and less place for private stuff. Currently I have more than 440 Livejournal users subscribed to my blog, and landed among Top 30 Belarusian Livejournal bloggers a couple of month ago.
There is still much personal stuff there, and it'd probably make sense to transer this part to a new blog. I see the problem that a huge part of my Russian real-life friends who subscribe to my blog are not much interested in politics, especially in Belarusian politics, and mostly do not even speak any Belarusian :) . On the other hand, some people interested in politics may find it less interesting to read about travel, jokes and other life impressions.
But an argument against that is that serious essays and columns are also posted to http://www.pozirk.org and/or http://bielarus.3dway.org, so that interested people might subscribe to it there and http://czalex.livejournal.com may be left over as a portrait of my interests in common.
A completely different thing is with the blog you are currently reading. The blog was originally created to practice English and German, then there was a a period of it's being inactive, and now it is being revived as a blog in English (except for the tag names :) ) on professional issues. It's still far from some specialization and a concrete niche - but I hope to develop it as I grow professionally.
At least some directions covered here might be named:
- Business, economics of Belarus and Russia
- Personal career experience
- Notes on audit, consulting with an accent on banking industry
- Rare inputs on social issues in Belarus, like my Belarusian articles translated by TOL Blogs Belarus.
Even this list of 4 is too broad if I'm aiming to attract people with what I write and not just real-life friends. But I let time show what's gonna be the blog's final specialization.
-> Gotta find some interesting blogs about strategy consulting, audit and finance to add to my Google Reader
Read more...
For example, Penelope Trunk's blog has a very interesting series of articles on blogging.
I have my Belarusian-Russian blog since 2003. First it was just a diary, then a means to communicate with friends who also have a blog at Livejournal and to find new friends among Belarusian speakers. Livejournal is very popular in post-Soviet countries exactly because it offers broad opportunities to communicate and not just to blog. Practically, it developed into a social network above a blogging service.
Finally, it more and more became a blog on current political issues concerning Belarus, leaving less and less place for private stuff. Currently I have more than 440 Livejournal users subscribed to my blog, and landed among Top 30 Belarusian Livejournal bloggers a couple of month ago.
There is still much personal stuff there, and it'd probably make sense to transer this part to a new blog. I see the problem that a huge part of my Russian real-life friends who subscribe to my blog are not much interested in politics, especially in Belarusian politics, and mostly do not even speak any Belarusian :) . On the other hand, some people interested in politics may find it less interesting to read about travel, jokes and other life impressions.
But an argument against that is that serious essays and columns are also posted to http://www.pozirk.org and/or http://bielarus.3dway.org, so that interested people might subscribe to it there and http://czalex.livejournal.com may be left over as a portrait of my interests in common.
A completely different thing is with the blog you are currently reading. The blog was originally created to practice English and German, then there was a a period of it's being inactive, and now it is being revived as a blog in English (except for the tag names :) ) on professional issues. It's still far from some specialization and a concrete niche - but I hope to develop it as I grow professionally.
At least some directions covered here might be named:
- Business, economics of Belarus and Russia
- Personal career experience
- Notes on audit, consulting with an accent on banking industry
- Rare inputs on social issues in Belarus, like my Belarusian articles translated by TOL Blogs Belarus.
Even this list of 4 is too broad if I'm aiming to attract people with what I write and not just real-life friends. But I let time show what's gonna be the blog's final specialization.
-> Gotta find some interesting blogs about strategy consulting, audit and finance to add to my Google Reader
Read more...
June 11, 2007
The US Budget graphically
http://www.thebudgetgraph.com/poster/
Might sound shocking for a post-Soviet: 67% of American state expenses go for the Military and for National Security.
"Evil American Militarist Imperialism"?
No, just what a state is actually there for.
Read more...
Might sound shocking for a post-Soviet: 67% of American state expenses go for the Military and for National Security.
"Evil American Militarist Imperialism"?
No, just what a state is actually there for.
Read more...
June 4, 2007
Sports
It's very important to do sports for a successful career.
- A success comes from the inner motivation to succeed. And the taste of success comes from past successes and from small victories from the every-day life. A won football match, a distance run or rode by bike – that all gives the feeling of having achieved something, supported by the relevant physical impressions
- Every football or basketball match you play is training on team working skills, first of all on psychological level
- Every bike ride is you ruling the space, getting the flying feeling of from your fast move and therefore a physical impression of changing the reality on your own wish
- I'm not a specialist in medicine and may therefore sound naïve, but I know that sport makes the organism produce hormones and initiates processes inside you that improve your productivity
- Sports just give you a good feeling and a fit look. And if you feel well and look well and know you look well, you’ll do better.
When I was small I was a child who preferred to sit at home, watch an interesting movie or read an interesting book or play Lego instead of going out and play some football outside – and therefore I tend to like single sports like swimming or bicycle. That's something I'd like to be changed - but nowadays my low football skills may be a problem :(
The main thing s to get the time for sports, and this may be a problem when you leave work at 9 PM.
Yeah, now I’m motivated to go to the swimming pool tonight! :)
Read more...
- A success comes from the inner motivation to succeed. And the taste of success comes from past successes and from small victories from the every-day life. A won football match, a distance run or rode by bike – that all gives the feeling of having achieved something, supported by the relevant physical impressions- Every football or basketball match you play is training on team working skills, first of all on psychological level
- Every bike ride is you ruling the space, getting the flying feeling of from your fast move and therefore a physical impression of changing the reality on your own wish
- I'm not a specialist in medicine and may therefore sound naïve, but I know that sport makes the organism produce hormones and initiates processes inside you that improve your productivity
- Sports just give you a good feeling and a fit look. And if you feel well and look well and know you look well, you’ll do better.
When I was small I was a child who preferred to sit at home, watch an interesting movie or read an interesting book or play Lego instead of going out and play some football outside – and therefore I tend to like single sports like swimming or bicycle. That's something I'd like to be changed - but nowadays my low football skills may be a problem :(
The main thing s to get the time for sports, and this may be a problem when you leave work at 9 PM.
Yeah, now I’m motivated to go to the swimming pool tonight! :)
Read more...
May 31, 2007
From E&Y to the embassy
From 22 January 2007 – Ambassador of the Republic of Hungary to the United Kingdom.
Borbala Czako, Country Managing Partner of Ernst & Young in Hungary and Deputy Managing Partner Central Europe South worked as the TAS service line leader of the firm between 2002 and 2005. She joined Ernst & Young in January 2002 from the World Bank Group, where she worked for 10 years. She was the Chief of Mission of IFC with investment banking responsibilities in Hungary and the region. On special assignments from the WBG she worked in Washington D.C. and Africa as well.
She has extensive experience in large private sector transactions in greenfield investments, privatization, mergers and aquisitions (Westel, Matáv, TetraPack, Suzuki, Pannonplast, Rambox) and financial sector investments (Raiffeisen Unicbank, InterEuropa Bank, First Hungary Fund, Euroventures). In her recent assignments Borbala worked on securitisation, environmental, energy efficiency, SME, health and educational projects.
Embassy of Hungary in the UK
// originally read about in Accountancy, march 2007
That's a career of my dream.
Grown up in a diplomatic family, in my childhood I inertially imagined my career as a one in foreign relations - but pragmatism prevailed as when it was to decide where to go after school, and international economics was the correct decision :)
Now, as I do not work at a foreign ministry (inclusively because there is no foreign ministry I'd like to work for: neither the Russian, nor the Belarusian until it's over with Lukashenka), my only possible way of becoming diplomat is to become something comparable to Entrepreneur of the Year (as this lady did) and then be invited for ambassadorship for the sake of prestige.
Gotta do that!
Read more...
May 30, 2007
Russia: Authoritarianism Means Ineffective Economy
Right as I was writing the reply on Karolus' comment here about that foreign investors are not afraid of political risks involved with Russia, the Russian fund market started its fall. I just wonder at what stage to sell my investment fund shares.
Yeah, and somebody thought here that democracy and economy do not relate to each other and that you can make business without taking care of politics as if it was something from a different planet. Indifference towards politics is common among my fellow yuppies and generally among Russians - they just go and vote for Putin without actually knowing a bit about what this man is.
For the Russian society as a whole the absence of democracy means the following:
- No transparency of state governance caused by lack of freedom of speech, especially in the regions outside Moscow and St. Petersburg. The media are state-controlled and therefore dependent on people in the administration and have no possibility of objective coverage of their faults
- No or blocked legal ways of influencing and adjusting the state policy: no democratic elections means no democratic parliament. Currently the only opposition party in the Duma are Communists. The governors’ elections were cancelled after the Beslan tragedy as a means to “fight terrorism” (yes, it was really said so). Instead, governors are directly appointed by the president and have therefore no accountability before the region’s population
- No guaranty of property rights, see YUKOS affair, the current raid on Russneft. In the regions the whole is, again, much harsher than in Moscow or St. Pete. Once a local authority sees an attractive business, it does not take too long for him to make the owner sell it for a low price after a couple of fiscal, medical, fire inspections coming across and after a “warm and confident” talk in the bureaucrat’s office
- Absence of independent courts and therefore no chance for victims of state despotism to bring the authorities or entities related to them to trial and, especially, to win. Judges are bought and sold.
- Monopoly rather than Oligopoly, both in politics and economy. Instead of Yeltsin era “oligarch clans” we now have the “different towers of one Kremlin”, several groups inside the ruling junta (e.g. “siloviki”, remainders of the Yeltsin “family” etc). Gazprom is becoming an anti-Utopian-style empire corporation with its own bank, media, football club, airlines and soon even armed forces. Rosneft is going the same way.
- No or blocked legal ways of publicly discussing the state policy except for the internet. Without publicity and exposure to criticism the state is limited in sources of creative ideas
- Corruption has nowadays a much greater scale than at worst Yeltsin's times
For businesses it means:
- Extra expenses on corruption: a sad but true fact is that budgets of most investment projects have bribe and kickback expenses a special article
- Extra bureaucratic burden: difficulties in registering a business, taxation – it all goes hand in hand with state authoritarianism
- General decline in [business] ethics in the society, therefore development of an unhealthy business culture and business climate.
So for all that we see a wave of non-resident investors leaving the Russian fund market last week.
I sometimes have the feeling that we are in danger to see the BRIC missing the "R" in a mid-term perspective. For this to be prevented, Russia must get back to the democratic path as soon as possible - at least to the limited democracy of Yeltsin times. A sort of a chance is coming up in 2008 where we'll have presidential elections. The elections will of course be anything but fair and democratic, but we have a chance that the new czar will be more liberal and democracy-oriented (Russia's democratic and modernization tendencies always depend on who's head of state). It seems that Putin's appointing of Dmitry Medvedev (current deputy Prime Minister) as The Kremlin Candidate would give us better chances than the of militarist former KGB-spy Sergei Ivanov, an other vice PM and #2 prospective Putin's pick.
Read more...
MICEX Index last week
Yeah, and somebody thought here that democracy and economy do not relate to each other and that you can make business without taking care of politics as if it was something from a different planet. Indifference towards politics is common among my fellow yuppies and generally among Russians - they just go and vote for Putin without actually knowing a bit about what this man is.
For the Russian society as a whole the absence of democracy means the following:
- No transparency of state governance caused by lack of freedom of speech, especially in the regions outside Moscow and St. Petersburg. The media are state-controlled and therefore dependent on people in the administration and have no possibility of objective coverage of their faults
- No or blocked legal ways of influencing and adjusting the state policy: no democratic elections means no democratic parliament. Currently the only opposition party in the Duma are Communists. The governors’ elections were cancelled after the Beslan tragedy as a means to “fight terrorism” (yes, it was really said so). Instead, governors are directly appointed by the president and have therefore no accountability before the region’s population
- No guaranty of property rights, see YUKOS affair, the current raid on Russneft. In the regions the whole is, again, much harsher than in Moscow or St. Pete. Once a local authority sees an attractive business, it does not take too long for him to make the owner sell it for a low price after a couple of fiscal, medical, fire inspections coming across and after a “warm and confident” talk in the bureaucrat’s office
- Absence of independent courts and therefore no chance for victims of state despotism to bring the authorities or entities related to them to trial and, especially, to win. Judges are bought and sold.
- Monopoly rather than Oligopoly, both in politics and economy. Instead of Yeltsin era “oligarch clans” we now have the “different towers of one Kremlin”, several groups inside the ruling junta (e.g. “siloviki”, remainders of the Yeltsin “family” etc). Gazprom is becoming an anti-Utopian-style empire corporation with its own bank, media, football club, airlines and soon even armed forces. Rosneft is going the same way.
- No or blocked legal ways of publicly discussing the state policy except for the internet. Without publicity and exposure to criticism the state is limited in sources of creative ideas
- Corruption has nowadays a much greater scale than at worst Yeltsin's times
For businesses it means:
- Extra expenses on corruption: a sad but true fact is that budgets of most investment projects have bribe and kickback expenses a special article
- Extra bureaucratic burden: difficulties in registering a business, taxation – it all goes hand in hand with state authoritarianism
- General decline in [business] ethics in the society, therefore development of an unhealthy business culture and business climate.
So for all that we see a wave of non-resident investors leaving the Russian fund market last week.
I sometimes have the feeling that we are in danger to see the BRIC missing the "R" in a mid-term perspective. For this to be prevented, Russia must get back to the democratic path as soon as possible - at least to the limited democracy of Yeltsin times. A sort of a chance is coming up in 2008 where we'll have presidential elections. The elections will of course be anything but fair and democratic, but we have a chance that the new czar will be more liberal and democracy-oriented (Russia's democratic and modernization tendencies always depend on who's head of state). It seems that Putin's appointing of Dmitry Medvedev (current deputy Prime Minister) as The Kremlin Candidate would give us better chances than the of militarist former KGB-spy Sergei Ivanov, an other vice PM and #2 prospective Putin's pick.
Read more...
May 27, 2007
Work/live convergence
At the office full of twentysomethings where my girlfriend, Niki, works, everyone was comparing their salaries, and the owner of the company got really angry. And his being angry made for a tough week, so Niki asked him if she could take Friday off.
He said, “If you’re going to be successful you need to start putting your career before your life.”
Of course she took the day off.
When she told her mother about the situation, her mother said, “If you don’t put your life before work you will never be happy.”
Hearing this conflicting advice from two of the most influential elders in your life is confusing. What does Niki’s boss say to his kids when he gets home? Does he tell them to put work before life? What would Niki’s mom say to young people she works with? Would she tell them to go home early?
This whole notion of needing to separate work and life implies that your career, which takes up about 75% of your day, is something you simply try to get through so you can go home and do what you really enjoy for the other 25%. What a terrible way to live.
Interesting post at penelopetrunk.com
The main thing is that you really enjoy your work so that it does not leave your interests and potential unrealized. Plus, very important is that your friends and/or family members work with you. Plus a maximally flexible working schedule.
The answer is own business
Read more...
May 25, 2007
May 24, 2007
Following a scandal
A strange feeling to find an account of one of the money laundering SPEs mentioned in a recent money laundering scandal at the bank currently audited. (see (1) and (2), both in Russian)
Russia is a country of thieves run by thieves. Everywhere you step in business, you can always expect something semi-illegal, and the further the more. Anywhere the state has a role - everywhere, absolutely everywhere there is corruption. Hardly a single sign of things like business ethics or simple human moral. And there is also a plenty of people in the West who take benefits from the Russian intransparent undemocratic regime and money laundering by the KGB&oligarchia-driven Russian semi-criminal economy, just like the former German Bundeskanzler Schröder.
Even if the article by Natalia Morar or the Frenkel Letters, about the Cyclopean schemes of milliards of USD flushing to unknown accounts of unknown people, are not 100% true, they do perfectly reflect Russian reality. In the wild 1990ies the criminals wore vulgar pink jackets, golden chains and sports pants, now they wear Brioni, drive Bentleys, have a "Yedinaya Rossia" party member's card and a "honorable veteran of the KGB" certificate in their pocket together with a second passport of some Maldive islands.
Every bank is surely involved in some money laundering, or "obnalichka" (something like the opposite of money laundering, i.e. hiding illegal usage of legally earned money) or at least tax avoidance schemes via bloody Cyprus. And while auditing it is even senseless to look for fraud, because 1) it is obviously there and 2) if you find something, reporting to authorities will not bring anything because some people in the authorities are most likely to have a share in the scheme themselves.
It's rational for people to violate over-strict and unlogical, or even harmful, laws that are not strictly defended by the corrupt state. And the more the laws get violated, the more strict and unlogical they become. We end up in a vicious circle that forms a culture of principal disrespect to laws and rules and value of evasion of legislation. That's the situation in Russia.
Read more...
Russia is a country of thieves run by thieves. Everywhere you step in business, you can always expect something semi-illegal, and the further the more. Anywhere the state has a role - everywhere, absolutely everywhere there is corruption. Hardly a single sign of things like business ethics or simple human moral. And there is also a plenty of people in the West who take benefits from the Russian intransparent undemocratic regime and money laundering by the KGB&oligarchia-driven Russian semi-criminal economy, just like the former German Bundeskanzler Schröder.
Even if the article by Natalia Morar or the Frenkel Letters, about the Cyclopean schemes of milliards of USD flushing to unknown accounts of unknown people, are not 100% true, they do perfectly reflect Russian reality. In the wild 1990ies the criminals wore vulgar pink jackets, golden chains and sports pants, now they wear Brioni, drive Bentleys, have a "Yedinaya Rossia" party member's card and a "honorable veteran of the KGB" certificate in their pocket together with a second passport of some Maldive islands.
Every bank is surely involved in some money laundering, or "obnalichka" (something like the opposite of money laundering, i.e. hiding illegal usage of legally earned money) or at least tax avoidance schemes via bloody Cyprus. And while auditing it is even senseless to look for fraud, because 1) it is obviously there and 2) if you find something, reporting to authorities will not bring anything because some people in the authorities are most likely to have a share in the scheme themselves.
It's rational for people to violate over-strict and unlogical, or even harmful, laws that are not strictly defended by the corrupt state. And the more the laws get violated, the more strict and unlogical they become. We end up in a vicious circle that forms a culture of principal disrespect to laws and rules and value of evasion of legislation. That's the situation in Russia.
Read more...
May 23, 2007
Russian banks are fit for IPO
My article for The Deloitte Times on IPOs of Russian Banks. Yeah, IPO is a trendy topic they're really fit or it! ) It's good that their going public will at least nominally reduce the state's role in the banking system. Though, this fact is rather like a water drop in a desert...
Read more...
Russian banks are fit for IPO
Russian banks must raise equity through IPO to secure their own finances. Alexander Chaichits Čajčyc argues they are fit for the challenge.
Russian capital markets are set to take a new step in their evolution this year with the flotation of the first major banks and other financial institutions. Two large Russian banks, Sberbank and VTB, are conducting IPOs this spring.
Sberbank is the largest national bank in Russia and one of the few with shares already traded on the stock market. A successor of the Soviet system of savings banks, it has over 20,000 branches and sub-branches, and the value of its assets is six times higher than that of its nearest rivals. The bank is also fourth among Russian companies in market capitalization. The bank’s share placement in March, known as the “people’s IPO” from the state’s efforts to distribute shares among the public, raised RUR 230.2bn (USD 8.8bn) by selling 2.587mn shares. Funds raised will finance the development of the bank for the next three years.
VTB (former Vneshtorgbank) has the second largest net assets among banks in Russia. Amongst debt issued by Russian banks, VTB’s bonds and Eurobonds have the highest credit ratings with Moody’s and Fitch. VTB’s IPO is the next step in a large-scale strategy to expand into the Western European market of investment services.
The current major shareholder of Sberbank and VTB is the Russian government, with a 99.9 percent share in VTB. The bank’s IPO will decrease the Government’s stake by to 75 percent plus one share. The state’s majority ownership of Sberbank fell from 63.7 percent to 60 percent in its March offering.
The media and business communities are keeping a keen eye on Sberbank and VTB to see who will secure a more successful IPO. Analysts predict that the stateowned banks’ IPOs are just the beginning of a future IPO boom for Russian banking.
The advantages of a public offering for banks are generally the same as for non-financial institutions. As the bank grows, it becomes unfeasible to sustain the debt/equity ratio required by the Central Bank by simply regulating loans raised. To have its two feet firmly on the ground, the bank needs to increase its equity. This may be done in three ways: by raising funds from existing shareholders, by selling a stake to a strategic investor, or by issuing equity or debt on public markets.
All three capital raising initiatives have their pitfalls. Existing shareholders are not always ready to absorb the complete issue, especially when it is a large amount. The sale of a large stake to a strategic investor requires care and precision in the search for an investor, which will in turn result in the emergence of a new power balance among shareholders, and changes to the management structure. Again, a strategic investor’s resources may not be large enough to cover the needs of a fast-growing bank.
The most reliable tool in this respect is an initial public offering. First, the market is more able to cope with a large issue than a strategic investor. Second, capital dilution through an IPO does not necessarily result in the emergence of a new major shareholder which challenges the existing power balance.
Floating a Russian bank on a stock exchange and complying with tough issuer requirements on reporting and transparency can demonstrate its business management standards. Publicly traded shares are liquid and quoted in real time, making them sensitive to the continuing performance of the bank. All this makes a positive impact on the bank’s reputation, which should potentially allow it to raise additional capital at a lower price.
2005-2006 saw the IPOs of three Chinese and three Japanese banks, as well as others in Austria, France, Greece, and the Netherlands. In 2006, two new world records were set for IPO capital raised. Both the world’s largest IPOs were from state-owned banks.
On 1 June, the Bank of China placed its stock on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising USD 9.7bn. In the six months following this, the record IPO volume was beaten again, also by a Chinese bank. In October, the Hong Kong and Singapore Stock Exchanges started trading shares in the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which managed to raise almost USD 22bn.
Sberbank is one of just a few Russian banks currently traded on the stock market. Last year, AKB Rosbank prepared for an IPO, but the whole package was sold to a strategic investor at the last minute. Many large and mid-sized banks intend to go public, encouraged by The Central Bank of Russia. All this is evidence of a potentially massive inflow of banks’ shares to the stock market: Russian banks are considered fit for IPO. Much of the preceding IPOs’ success will depend on the pioneers, Sberbank and VTB, which explains the particular interest in their placements. Hardly anyone doubts that the first fry will be far from a flop.
Alexander Čajčyc, Deloitte
Rosbank, Russian Banks and Brokers Reports
Read more...
Tropical Moscow
The weather is purely tropical here in Moscow. +30 degrees, and we auditors as usually get sat the into most stifling room. And moreover I have missed my session of swimming pool (
Read more...
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May 18, 2007
Solidarity with Belarus
The 16th of every month is a Day of Solidarity with the victims of political repressions in Belarus
One of the few things we can do to support the people struggling for democracy in Belarus.
The Belarusian community of Moscow usually puts flowers to the monument to Janka Kupała, one of the most important Belarusian poets of the 20th century who died under unclear circumstances in Moscow in 1941. There are versions that his fall from a stairs in the Moskva hotel was inspired by Soviet secret police - just as in 1999 the politicians Viktar Hančar, Jury Zacharanka, Anatol Krasoŭski disappeared [and were obviously killed] and Hienadź Karpienka died of a "heart attack" in the moment when they all were most dangerous to the dictator Lukashenka.
More photos on my Belarusian-Russian blog
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One of the few things we can do to support the people struggling for democracy in Belarus.
The Belarusian community of Moscow usually puts flowers to the monument to Janka Kupała, one of the most important Belarusian poets of the 20th century who died under unclear circumstances in Moscow in 1941. There are versions that his fall from a stairs in the Moskva hotel was inspired by Soviet secret police - just as in 1999 the politicians Viktar Hančar, Jury Zacharanka, Anatol Krasoŭski disappeared [and were obviously killed] and Hienadź Karpienka died of a "heart attack" in the moment when they all were most dangerous to the dictator Lukashenka.
More photos on my Belarusian-Russian blog
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May 14, 2007
Eurovision'2007
Eurovision Song Contest
Every year everybody says that Eurovision is crap and they do not want to see it. But still, for at least several days it becomes the most discussed topic in Russian media and blogs.
The winning song from Serbia is though not bad, but nothing special at all at the same time. Just an other whiny ballad in Serbian - I even liked the Bosnian song that took 3rd place on ESC'2006 more.
Ukraine's trashy Verka Serdyuchka - that's who was supposed to win! :)
The man (hm!) is famous in post-Soviet countries for his unfunny humorist shows and sketches, and only a couple of years ago he started to sing songs that were of bad taste too but still something good for moving one's body after some vodka on a village disco.
An important topic discussed in Russia is now whether it says "Lasha Tumbai" or "Russia, goodbye!" in Serdyuchka's song. Some Russian bloggers already proposed to boycott him just as they hysterically called for a boycott on Estonian goods a week ago because of Estonian government replacing a Soviet monument in Tallinn. Ridiculous and lächerlich! As most neighbors with a complicated history of relations do, many Russians and Ukrainians don't like each other. As I have noticed, Russians express this in rudeness and aggression; and Ukrainians laugh Russians off and put them in situations where they look stupid. This is a typical case.
Russia's Serebro and Belarus' Dźmitry Kałdun aka Koldun were nothing special at all. Just an other two Eurovision songs: not bad, but not brilliant neither. Much more I liked the songs presented by Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland (I can't believe they got the last place!).
As to me, the very best song of this year's contest was Sopho Khalvashi of Georgia with "Visionary Dream". The promo video is as marvelous as the song itself!
That girl just broke my heart! The song got few votes - but that's because it's just too good for Eurovision, if you ask me.
Read more...
Every year everybody says that Eurovision is crap and they do not want to see it. But still, for at least several days it becomes the most discussed topic in Russian media and blogs.
The winning song from Serbia is though not bad, but nothing special at all at the same time. Just an other whiny ballad in Serbian - I even liked the Bosnian song that took 3rd place on ESC'2006 more.
Ukraine's trashy Verka Serdyuchka - that's who was supposed to win! :)
The man (hm!) is famous in post-Soviet countries for his unfunny humorist shows and sketches, and only a couple of years ago he started to sing songs that were of bad taste too but still something good for moving one's body after some vodka on a village disco.
An important topic discussed in Russia is now whether it says "Lasha Tumbai" or "Russia, goodbye!" in Serdyuchka's song. Some Russian bloggers already proposed to boycott him just as they hysterically called for a boycott on Estonian goods a week ago because of Estonian government replacing a Soviet monument in Tallinn. Ridiculous and lächerlich! As most neighbors with a complicated history of relations do, many Russians and Ukrainians don't like each other. As I have noticed, Russians express this in rudeness and aggression; and Ukrainians laugh Russians off and put them in situations where they look stupid. This is a typical case.
Russia's Serebro and Belarus' Dźmitry Kałdun aka Koldun were nothing special at all. Just an other two Eurovision songs: not bad, but not brilliant neither. Much more I liked the songs presented by Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland (I can't believe they got the last place!).
As to me, the very best song of this year's contest was Sopho Khalvashi of Georgia with "Visionary Dream". The promo video is as marvelous as the song itself!
That girl just broke my heart! The song got few votes - but that's because it's just too good for Eurovision, if you ask me.
Read more...
May 11, 2007
Scylla defeating Charybdis: WW2 in Belarus
My article on TOL blog Belarus
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Reflections on the official holiday of Victory Day, 9th of May, 2007 by Aleś Čajčyc for Pozirk.org.
Translated from Bełarusian by eolonir and ox populi.
The Ninth of May. The “red day” as it is also known, one marked red both in the calendars and in peoples' memories. The Victory day. The day which I can't help calling the day of Pobeda. (Pobeda means “victory” in Russian, whereas in Belarusian it is called “pieramoha”). I catch myself at trying to use this Russian word in my language. The Russian and Soviet clichés and stereotypes are rooted too deeply in my mind – it is difficult to separate the Soviet myth and Soviet name of the event from the actual event.In the Soviet mythology the victory over Fascist Germany in the Great Patriotic War – Vialikaj Ajčynnaj Vajnie (in Belarusian) -- Velikoj Ociečestvennoj Vojnie (in Russian) was a part of a long and awesome epic story about the power of communism. Soviet propaganda aligned all anti-communist movements, among them the “White Army”, the Western Democracies, the Belarusian Liberation movements under one category -- the enemies of communism, the dark forces. Victory over the Nazis was presented as the first step to the world communism domination.
Such holidays are usually celebrated to honour a victory against an external enemy and to honour the national army which made that victory possible. For Russia, the predecessor and successor of the Soviet Union, this war had really been the national patriotic war, the war for the national liberation. One can understand that it might be possible for the question about crimes of Stalinist regime and terror inside the country to be moved down the agenda – considering the threat to the existence of Russia as a country. The Russians were fighting for the very right to exist. Incidentally, the tradition to commemorate victories long after they have taken place is typical of Moscow – the 1812 Victory or taking over Kazan' had been celebrated for decades.
Lukashenka's Belarus has added another, special meaning to the celebrations of the 9th of May. Having no ideological or metaphorical grounding on which to build up the state system, the regime keeps grappling at the remnants of the past, at these emotional Soviet symbols. Moreover, it enslaves the present within the remnants of totalitarian past. How “patriotic” had this war been for those who had been occupied themselves? How much of a holiday is this for Bełaruś?
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March 23, 2007
Auf Kosten von Respekt zu sich selber
In Russland lebt man nicht – man überlebt, oft auf Kosten von Respekt zu sich selber. Das Land ist korrupt von A bis Z, von den größten Kremlbonzen bis zu dem kleinsten lausigsten Militärkommisariatbeamten. Es ist unfassbar.
Dabei ist dieses System nicht reformierbar – schlicht weil niemand an einer Reformierung interessiert ist. Keiner von denen hier ist. Alle leben damit von Geburt, alle werden früher oder später zu Opfern der Korruption, alle Eltern müssen eines Tages der Kinderärztin oder Kindergartennanny schöne Bonbons schenken, damit sie ihre Arbeit anständig macht; für alle Autofahrer ist es ein Teil des Lebens, dem Straßenpolizisten 50 oder 100 Rubeln zu spenden, damit er ihnen keine Strafquittung ausschreibt. So gehörts halt.
Imbezile russische Gesetze sind nur dazu da, um denjenigen zu bestrafen, wer ihnen zu folgen versucht – genau wie in Ayn Rands “Atlas Shrugged”. Zwei Jahre russische Armee sind eine Folter wie zwei Jahre russisches Gefängnis, mit Selbstmordraten im Durchschnitt 1-2 Soldaten pro Tag. Da besticht man schon lieber den fetten Schleimer beim Militäramt, statt in diese Hölle zu geraten. Und so ists überall.
Die Menschen wollen überleben, deshalb kein Ausweg außer Korruption. Und da Korruption etwas ganz unschuldiges und normales wird, werden die Leute immer selbst zu Korrumpanten sobald sie eine Möglichkeit dazu kriegen.
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Dabei ist dieses System nicht reformierbar – schlicht weil niemand an einer Reformierung interessiert ist. Keiner von denen hier ist. Alle leben damit von Geburt, alle werden früher oder später zu Opfern der Korruption, alle Eltern müssen eines Tages der Kinderärztin oder Kindergartennanny schöne Bonbons schenken, damit sie ihre Arbeit anständig macht; für alle Autofahrer ist es ein Teil des Lebens, dem Straßenpolizisten 50 oder 100 Rubeln zu spenden, damit er ihnen keine Strafquittung ausschreibt. So gehörts halt.
Imbezile russische Gesetze sind nur dazu da, um denjenigen zu bestrafen, wer ihnen zu folgen versucht – genau wie in Ayn Rands “Atlas Shrugged”. Zwei Jahre russische Armee sind eine Folter wie zwei Jahre russisches Gefängnis, mit Selbstmordraten im Durchschnitt 1-2 Soldaten pro Tag. Da besticht man schon lieber den fetten Schleimer beim Militäramt, statt in diese Hölle zu geraten. Und so ists überall.
Die Menschen wollen überleben, deshalb kein Ausweg außer Korruption. Und da Korruption etwas ganz unschuldiges und normales wird, werden die Leute immer selbst zu Korrumpanten sobald sie eine Möglichkeit dazu kriegen.
Read more...
January 8, 2007
Europe's Extinction
2007-01-06 08:08 / Aleś Čajčyc
"Blessed are the meek, for they shall inherit the earth." (Mt. 5:5 KJV)
The Western civilisation and democratic culture seem to be going to their fall, and this fall might happen rather sooner than later. And it will not be an economic crashdown, it will not be some nuclear terrorist attack and will not be a third (fourth?) World War. It will be the West's silent physical extinction.
We are all used to the information about Europe's catastrophe-approaching demography. By 2025 40% of UK's population will be over 50 years old. Italy's population will fall by 2050 by 22%. The population of Germany is going to shrink from today's 83 Mio to approximately 70 Mio. Among them 10 Millions will be people aged more than 80, the average age of the Germans will by that time be 50 years. The annual difference between deaths and births will be about 600 thousands deaths over births, compared to already 150 thousands nowadays.
It is mostly spoken about the economic and financial consequences of the approaching demographic crisis. A bigger percentage of pensioners will have to be supplied by a smaller part of generative working power. Still, the modern economy seems to have found a possible solution for this problem as the pensions are more and more supplied by money invested by future pensioners into retirement insurance and private pension funds. Working people in the West start providing for their future pensions by own investments and corporate pension schemes, although it is very questionable whether all working people will be able to use this scheme. An other option is to keep on rising the retirement age.
One can imagine the further development of this process with Europe finally transforming into a society of renters. Less and less human resources are needed for the economy, as the industry is more and more outlaid to countries with cheaper workforce, lower ecological standards et cetera. The capital resides in London, Frankfurt, New York and the production is in India, China. Globalisation melts the whole world into one society, where new social classes will at the first stage be constructed on the base of nations, with the West, especially Europe, becoming "capitalist" and the rest of the world becoming "proletarian". The Western society will herewith not be interested in renewing the population: just remember the prognosis of Russia's income per capita growing drastically within the next decades because of a slight growth of income, but a drastic decrease in population.
Without speaking of the danger of a globo-social revolution, the obvious trend is that one day in several centuries Europeans will simply die out.
Certain political powers put a taboo on discussions of political and cultural aspects of Europe's extinction. But the problem is still there and unfortunately can not be ignored: the extinction of Western political culture will obviously threaten the global democratic progress. Even immigrants in European countries often face problems in accepting their new home countries' liberal values, forming isolated ethnic and religious groups that live and promote totalitarian ideology. The global progress of liberty and democratic transformations will not be able to continue without having a base of adherents who have grown up in democracy and have the values of liberty as a cornerstone, as an essence of their mentality and world-view. The further Europe's depopulation progresses, the fewer of these people-born-in-freedom the world has.
There is also a more individualistic issue in the problem. Solving Europe's demographic problem is a question of simply whether we want to survive as a culture and as a civilisation, whether we do care about anything further than our personal animalistic interests, or we don't. The living conditions of a country may be good or bad or even very bad, the living standards may be high or low or even very low. But as soon as there are physically people there in the country, there will be a future for the nation, there will always be a chance for the situation to improve. That is exactly the strategic advantage of the "developing" African and Asian countries over the "developed" Europe. Is Europe's time up? Or are we still there? Do we care about existence of the European cultural identity in the future? These are the existential questions that must be set and must be answered above all.
Different solutions to the demographic problems are proposed by the political elites. The mainstream left wing seems to prefer leaving the problem as it is. It simply tries to handle external symptoms of the problem by introducing new pension schemes burdening the private business and trying to compensate decrease of population merely by means of migration. the conservative right wing sees the problem more deeply, but their proposed measures are even less adequate. The conservatives' vision means regress and abandonment of liberal and democratic freedoms, going back to the Kinder-Küche-Kirche-formula of woman's role in society, putting restrictions on migration.
Here we see an acute need for a "third way" in solving the problem. Finding the solution will substantially be put on our generation's shoulders, as those around-50-years olds of 2025 are us, today's twens. It is going to be our generation who will bury the European civilisation and the global democracy by simply not giving new bearers to them - or will find out how to overcome this challenge. Everything is up to us.
Third Way
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December 24, 2006
Christmas in Moscow
Today's Christmas mass
Tadevuš Kandrusievič, bishop of Moscow. The man is originally from Hrodna, Belarus.
The Cathedral of Moscow
Merry Christmas to everybody!
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December 23, 2006
Nazi terrorism in Moscow
http://maskodagama.livejournal.com/440179.html
An other attack against an antifascist activist in Moscow. The youngster was coming home with his mother. On their flat's door they saw a Hakenkreuz and a papersheet saying "Juden Khachi (derogatory for "Caucasians") live here". The boy was about to tear the paper away as he saw a bomb connected to it. They immediately called the police. As the policemen tried to neutralise the bomb, it exploded and heavily injured them.
The Livejournal post above has some comments supporting the "Russian Warriors Fighting Bastardic Antifa" that are also more than illustrative.
And this is not the first such case. Skinhead attacks against people from Caucasus countries, the Central Asia, Africa or even (and more often) from the Russian Northern Caucasus are more than usual news here. The democratic opposition says that this increased activity is supported by the Kremlin to maintain a feeling of insecurity among the people. Besides that, the nazis should therefore become the most probable alternative to "good guys" from the pro-Kremlin parties and movements, so that people would face the choice between neo-Putin and nazis at the coming parliamental and presidental elections.
Be it so or not - we really seem to live in a Russian Weimar Republic that has a realistic chance to become a Russian Third Reich.
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An other attack against an antifascist activist in Moscow. The youngster was coming home with his mother. On their flat's door they saw a Hakenkreuz and a papersheet saying "
The Livejournal post above has some comments supporting the "Russian Warriors Fighting Bastardic Antifa" that are also more than illustrative.
And this is not the first such case. Skinhead attacks against people from Caucasus countries, the Central Asia, Africa or even (and more often) from the Russian Northern Caucasus are more than usual news here. The democratic opposition says that this increased activity is supported by the Kremlin to maintain a feeling of insecurity among the people. Besides that, the nazis should therefore become the most probable alternative to "good guys" from the pro-Kremlin parties and movements, so that people would face the choice between neo-Putin and nazis at the coming parliamental and presidental elections.
Be it so or not - we really seem to live in a Russian Weimar Republic that has a realistic chance to become a Russian Third Reich.
Read more...
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